You have probably seen that opinions on the likelihood of a pandemic differ widely. It is perplexing and infuriating all at once! The mystery of these different risk assessments can be unraveled thanks to psychological study into risk perception. It analyzes the elements that influence individual risk perceptions, and why people are more likely to underestimate the dangers of their surroundings. For those whose risk perceptions differ from our own, it can help us develop empathy for them and better estimate our own risks.
Disasters can be magnified or minimized by people’s perceptions of risk. In the present pandemic, this is obviously true. There is a correlation between people’s perceptions of risk and their decisions to wear masks, socially remove themselves, acquire immunizations and boosters, and participate in certain activities.
It is an example of a cognitive “shortcut” that influences risk perception, such as the availability heuristic. In other words, if something is simple to picture, we are more likely to believe it will come to pass. Because of this, people are more likely to consider a hazard to be more dangerous if someone in their immediate social network has been affected by it, or if media coverage depicts victims of the danger. A loved one’s death from Covid often prompts individuals to wear masks or get vaccinated.
Pandemic hazards may be less accessible to persons who have been vaccinated, but this is good news. There is a significant reduction in the risk of Covid infection in those who have been vaccinated or who have been boosted. Some anti-vaxxers consider this as proof that the dangers of vaccines are overblown, rather than proof that vaccines are effective.
Inevitably, coverage of the epidemic and consumer exposure to stories of overburdened medical systems, Covid hospitalizations and deaths and long-term Covid varies across news outlets. Recently, I spoke with a person who was attending a funeral. Thirty-four members of his extended family have died from Covid, and another fifteen are in the hospital. Because they had not attended the same event, they were not infected by it.
Covid dangers are readily available in his family’s minds, but many of them remain unconvinced to wear masks or be vaccinated. Many “doubters” in his family believed the government was using vaccines as a cover for microchip implants, according to him. He blamed the media for indoctrinating them.
Adding to the risk ambiguity are the Covid mutations, which shift people’s sense of risk. Risk evaluations by public health and government professionals may alter over time, and partisan politics may lead to different risk messaging. When faced with uncertainty, people tend to accept the viewpoints and values of those with whom they have a strong sense of social support.
Families, friends, and the news media all serve as social “referents” that shape our perceptions of risk, especially when we lack context. We are also social animals, and risk perceptions can be regulated by social approval and disapproval, as we seek acceptance and belonging.
Add to this the fact that our goals and self-protective needs often skew our perceptions of risk. Motivated thinking is the term used by psychologists to describe this phenomenon. Our ability to carry out our plans is enhanced by minimizing risk. Since the pandemic has been going on for almost two years, I have learned to minimize danger, or at the very least tolerate greater risk, in order to see my friends and family, care for others, buy, and travel. The “affect (feelings) heuristic” is so named because it refers to the tendency to let our want to undertake something overcome our ability to assess the risks.
While acknowledging that hazards are considerable, people can believe that their personal risk and the risk to those they care about are modest. Motivated reasoning such as this is referred to as “optimism bias.” As a result, we may not take as many precautionary measures as we normally would.
To feel more in control and secure, many people turn to their spiritual or health routines for comfort. Many epidemic deaths of religiously devout and healthy people have exposed this fallacy.
When it comes to risk perceptions, the pandemic risk perceptions are no different. Your well-being depends on appropriately analyzing your risks, which may change dependent on the health status of you and your loved ones, your mental health, and what is going on in your neighborhood. With the goal of minimizing the harms of pandemics to yourself and others, you will also want to keep an eye out for any biases that may affect how you perceive the risks.